How China turns predictability into power
My new Foreign Affairs piece on China's approach to geopolitics. China is not offering a more generous alternative to the US but a more predictable one.
Foreign Affairs: China is Winning by Waiting
In my new piece for Foreign Affairs, I argue that anyone expecting a charm offensive from Beijing will be disappointed. China has long used carrots and sticks to get what it wants. And with its growing economic and technological strength, those carrots and sticks have only grown larger, from manufacturing investment to export controls. In many ways, Beijing pursues a transactional approach to geopolitics like Trump, eschewing lofty values for incentives and dealmaking. But in contrast to Trump’s uncertainty and chaos, China offers predictability. This is why many countries—including some of America’s closest allies like Canada and Britain—are turning to China.
Here’s the opening:
“One of the greatest advantages the United States has over China has been its soft power—the ability to persuade other countries, particularly allies and partners, to go along with its wants without having to resort to coercion. For decades, other countries have made sacrifices on behalf of the United States because they believed they were better off working with Washington than Beijing in the long run. This was the ultimate win-win for the United States and its partners. Together, they prospered through collective defense, integrated markets, and coordinated action on common challenges, including dealing with China.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to put an end to much of that cooperation. The United States, once the bedrock of the international system, is now a major source of geopolitical instability. Trump launched a global trade war, slapping tariffs indiscriminately on allies and adversaries alike and bullying longtime partners. He ordered the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, raising fears that sovereign rules no longer apply, and has repeatedly threatened to seize allied territories.
These moves have caused many U.S. partners and allies to turn to China as an alternative. But China is not rushing to exploit the rupture in the United States’ relationships…”
Read the full piece: China is Winning by Waiting
Really good piece, Kyle. It get's to the core of what's going on.
(I had to smile when I read "U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to put an end to much of that cooperation." Tell me I'm wrong, but I see the editors' pen in the double hedge. "Much" would have been fine.)
The day Trump was elected we were put on this path. He is in over his head and it's hard to see how the world - not to mention Taiwan - will recover from the power China will gain while there's no one home at the head of the world's essential nation.
China is certainly transactional and eschews pushing an ideological agenda. Although I would argue they generally prefer stability and believe in climate change and global biodiversity (despite their predatory fishing fleets) more than can be explained by self-interest alone. Would you disagree?