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Michael Spencer's avatar

U.S. export controls have made China substantially more innovative all across their technology spectrum. That really is the point. They are now the undisputed leader in open source AI. The capabilities of their models in agentic AI are world-class now. They've made significant strides and have a meaningful edge in countless technologies.

The United States needs better long-term strategy, not simply to hamper its Global competitors if it wants to stay ahead. It needs to create an inviting place for AI Talent to come, but it's done the opposite. Now China's AI Talent density in engineering and research is fundamentally ahead.

Yuzu Xu's avatar

Your testimony landed April 22. DeepSeek V4 dropped April 23, Tencent Hy3 the same day. Both open-sourced, both matching or rivaling frontier closed models.

Your point 3 on export controls is playing out in real time. The V4 tech report explicitly links pricing to Huawei Ascend 950 production timelines in H2 2026. They wrote it in the footnote: pricing will drop significantly when Ascend 950 super nodes ship at scale. Export controls created the constraint. The constraint accelerated domestic chip adaptation.

The efficiency framing matters too. Tencent Hy3 (295B total, 21B active) achieves a 7% activation ratio, more efficient than anything at this scale. Your distinction between raw model performance and full-stack adoption is proving out quickly. The winning race is not just at the model layer.

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